UFC 101 is tomorrow night in Pennsylvania and it is a very unique set of fights. I will comment on just a few and will make my thoughts brief, though I often have a tough time doing that. I do like the fact that the UFC, Dana White, and more importantly Joe Silva gave the nod to a good group of east coast fighters, to participate close to home.
1st up is the Main Event of the night: Kenny “Kenflo” Florian vs. BJ Penn for the UFC Lighweight Championship
Kenny fights out of our brother school Sityodtong in Somerville, MA as well as his own new school Florian Martial Arts. In my brief assessment, Kenflo is a constantly evolving fighter, with a smart head on his shoulders, the ability to fight from behind, and the ability to listen to his corner. With each fight he has consistently improved the different aspects of his game. This reminds me of something I recently wrote about Nick Diaz, who is now on a short list of future long time champions.
BJ Penn is known as the Prodigy. This is because in his early days he ended fights in quick and seemingly easy fashion, and has always appeared to fight using the natural gifts bestowed upon him the day he was born. He has fought a lot of impressive names, gaining some significant victories to add to his resume. He is a bigger 155 which gives him a seeming advantage
My Pick: Kenny takes this one in what will be called an upset and walks away with the UFC title. BJ does not fight from behind well, his conditioning is often called in to question, and he will not have the mental edge. In BJ’s last 3 fights he is 3-3, with 2 losses to GSP, with whom Kenflo spent considerable time with, in preparation. BJ also does not come in with a game plan, which is a bit of a mistake for this fight. He will need to get off first in striking, but I hold Kenny with the edge here, training with a next level Muay Thai game. Penn’s next option is the ground. Both are solid on the ground. Penn has ended 4 out of his 5 submission wins with a rear naked choke. That is not something I see Kenny getting caught in, as a BJJ blackbelt. Penn would have to hope to resurrect the now-dead art of ground-and-pound. He is strong enough on the ground and has a shot from side control but I just don’t see Kenny hanging out here. Kenny is also 6-0 in his last 6 fights, and wasn’t picked in his last 4. He has also fought from near submission losses to victory. At a point when Massachusetts is about to fully regulate Mixed Martial Arts, inviting the UFC to Boston, Kenny will be holding a title.
2nd: Forrest Griffin vs. Anderson Silva
In a quick overview I am going out on a limb in calling this one for the upset of the year. Griffin has nothing to loose. He lost the lightweight title already. He is a hard nose loves to slug it out fighter who cares more about leaving it all in the ring. He wants to win, but for all the right reasons. The things against him are the two recent knock-out losses. Once it happens, it can happen easier and easier. Just ask Chuck Liddell. He also needs to fight smarter than he has in the past and not get caught up in Andersons waiting-game style. This is also something that favors Griffin: Anderson has been getting a bad wrap about he recent performances and he will want to look impressive. Griffin has hard-solid recent wins over Shogun Rua and Rampage Jackson to back his ability to pull the upset, as well as other victories over big guys like Travis Fulton and Jeff Monson. Watch the kicks and don’t get caught in the clinch and Forrest takes this one with an early, surprise KO!
3rd: Johny Hendricks vs. Amir Sadollah
Sadollah is the more inexperienced one who has also been on the shelf for the last year, with a series of injury set-backs. Hendricks has heavy hands, a 5 and 0 record, and has fought on a bigger stage, the WEC, and is making the natural step up to the UFC. On paper and on film in every possible way Hendricks should win this fight……….but my pick is Sadollah. I think Sadollah is a naturally gifted fighter who also fights very intellectually. He is like a camillion in his adaptability and that is much more important than heavy hands. The older, wiser Sadollah moves to 2-0 after this.
4th: Ricardo Almeida vs. Kendall Grove
I’m pulling for Grove, who gets the good-guy award in this fight, but Almeida is an under-rated, under-performing talent. Out of his 10 wins, 6 are by decision and 4 by submission. If his standup game is improved and ready to be showcased he should edge Grove. He also has a few very important victories on his record, such as Nate Marquardt, Eugene Jackson, and Yuki Sasaki. Grove does have the height and reach, as well as the abilty to pull off an early win via triangle but I’ll go with Almeida winning by TKO.
5th: Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellgrino
No offense to either of these guys, but how did they end up on the main card, yet McCrory/Howard and Leites/Sakara are relegated to prelim status. This is the journeymen/gatekeeper fight of the night. Let’s be honest. Neither of these guys will likely be climbing any ladders to a title but they are both talented and hard fighters. The reason I think that this one makes it on the TV side of the card is specifically because it does, on paper, look like it will be an exciting fight between 2 veterans who badly need an impressive victory to maintain a UFC paycheck. I’ll edge Neer in this one via submission in the 2nd round.
6th: John Howard vs. Tamdan McCrory
A preliminary fight I am looking forward to. I think McCrory has what it takes to make people re-notice him in this fight, coming away with an impressive victory in a tough fight. John Howard has natural talent but does not yet have the tools. Howard needs to change camps soon.
7th: Thales Leites vs. Alessio Sakara
Another prelim fight I’d love to see. Sakara has such deep experience, taking on a long list of really talent fighters. The problem is he doesn’t ever find the way to win when he needs it most. Leites is coming off a terrible unanimous decision loss to the current UFC champ Anderson Silva. 5 5-min rounds is a lot to fight against a man thought to be pound-for-pound one of the top three in the world. Leites may get a fight of the night bonus for this one, as he redeems himself in a bloody battle and a TKO win in the 3rd round.
Others……….
Shane Nelson KO’s Aaron Riley AGAIN
Matthew Riddle decisions Dan Cramer
George Sotiropoulos submits George Roop
Jesse Lennox vs. Danillo Villefort — very tough fight to call. Both are stepping up from the WEC with wins. I’ll give it to Villefort via TKO in round 1.

